The week will start off slowly with Memorial day in the US and a bank holiday in the UK. In essence, the week will start on Tuesday so don’t be too eager to place bets on Monday.
Going into the week, news from Russia/Saudi Arabia will be key for Oil prices. Oil prices dropped as Saudi Arabia and Russia mused about increasing supply by a million barrels per day. The other clear driver will be trade war fears, as Trump turned his cannons on other nations by threatening a 25% tariff on auto imports. North Korea is also back on the radar after Trump swiftly cancelled the June 12th leaders’ summit. Italian political uncertainty may continue to pressure the Euro. Last but not least, Fed rate hike expectations ebbed, as participants generally agreed that a “gradual approach” to policy normalization is still appropriate.
We also have the G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank heads (Thurs-Sat) where protectionism is likely to take center stage.
On the data front, Non-Farm Payrolls will be the spotlight item on the calendar, but ahead of that we get the Bank of Canada Rates decision, US GDP revisions and CAD GDP.
Going into the week, I will be bearish on Crude Oil and bearish on CAD-EUR-GBP vs. Jpy & Usd. Nasdaq is biased long, but it has been tricky last week. Perhaps it will behave better this week?