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Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April (May comes on June 24th).
First the scary:
Then the scarier:
The 3 month moving average for production and income component of the CFNAI is now at 2016 levels. Of course 2016 did not coincide with a recession. But the term spread was solidly upward sloping then, and most NBER BCDC key indicators were rising.
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